IPL 2014: The player retention dilemma and a test of mathematics

More than one month ahead of the player auctions for the upcoming seventh season of the Indian Premier League, the eight franchises are being put through a very tough strategic test as they indulge in different permutations and combinations to combat the new right-to-match (joker's card) rule and emerge with a strong squad after the auctions.

The new right-to-match rule allows each of team to buy back some of their own players who they don't retain. According to this rule, after the bidding for the player is closed, the franchise that owned him in the 2013 season have a veto-like power to reclaim him at the price at which he was bid for. Teams that retain three to five players from their 2013 squad, have the option of using right-to-match on one additional player. If they retain one or two players, they can use right-to-match on two players while teams that don't retain a single member of their previous squad, can use right-to-match on three players. (Also read: Will there be no cheerleaders in IPL 2014?)

From a total budget of Rs 60 crores, Rs 12.5 crores is allocated for the first player retained, 9.5 for second, 7.5 for third, 5.5 for fourth and 3.5 for fifth. Keeping this in mind and the fact that entire Pune Warriors India squad will go under the hammer, the eight teams could look at retaining players in the following manner.

Mumbai Indians

The holders of the IPL title and the Champions League winners from last year will have a list of familiar faces who they would want to see in their dug out come April.  After a lot of pondering, Mumbai can be expected to value in-form fast bowler Mitchell Johnson worth the Rs. 12.5 crores and retain him. Next in line could be skipper Rohit Sharma, who led the team to back-to-back titles in 2013. After these two fairly straightforward choices, the real dilemma kicks in - whether to retain another player or to look to utilize right-to-match on two players.  

As far as the right-to-match is concerned, they may want to get back Harbhajan Singh, who did very well in the Champions League last year and has never shied away from an opportunity to throw his bat around. They may also look at getting back one out of Ambati Rayudu or Dinesh Karthik, two Indian players who have time and again proved their worth in important run chases. But with the likes of Kieron Pollard and Glenn Maxwell also in their last year's squad, Mumbai will face problem of plenty. It will not be entirely surprising if they opt to use right-to-match on one of Pollard or Maxwell ahead of Rayudu or Karthik.

Chennai Super Kings

Chennai Super Kings might end up being the only side that retains three or more players. In skipper MS Dhoni and Suresh Raina, they have two stalwarts and easy pickings for retention. Between Ravichandran Ashwin, Ravindra Jadeja and Dwayne Bravo - the other three consistent performers - Chennai might look at retaining two and using right-to-match on the third. Given Ashwin's consistent performance and Jadeja's meteoric rise as a handy all-rounder in the shorter formats of the game, Chennai can be expected to put Bravo back in the ring and reclaim him using right-to-match.

Delhi Daredevils

Delhi Daredevils suffered a poor season in 2013 and will hope to find the right combinations to put on a better show in 2014. England's Kevin Pietersen and Australian David Warner are two players whose ability to singlehandedly turn a match on its head is well-documented. Delhi will have to take the tough decision of letting the out-of-sorts Virender Sehwag go into the auctions. The Delhi Daredevils' skipper from last year has been on the sidelines for India and has been in woeful form in the Ranji season. It is highly unlikely that they will look to retain him but there are chances they might nick him back using right-to-match as he might still be a big crowd puller.

Sunrisers Hyderabad

The Sunrisers Hyderabad punched above their weight in their maiden season in 2013 by finishing in the top four. Yet, it will be tough for the management to retain too many players and forego a big chunk of their budget. From their squad in 2013, they are likely to retain Dale Steyn. As far as right-to-match is concerned, they can look at reclaiming the services of Amit Mishra, Shikhar Dhawan and the young Quinton de Kock.

While Mishra has been one of the best bowlers across six seasons of the IPL, Dhawan came in as respite for a side that struggled to find a good opening combination. Dhawan's natural aggression makes him a valuable option. As for de Kock, his exceptional batting skills for South Africa in limited-overs cricket have not gone unnoticed. He could spark a bidding war and Sunrisers should look to reclaim him and give Dhawan a good opening partner.

Royal Challengers Bangalore

Royal Challengers Bangalore have three superstars in their ranks -- Chris Gayle, AB de Villiers and Virat Kohli. It will be a no-brainer decision to retain the services of these three while they might also want to ponder over getting back Ravi Rampaul via right-to-match.

Kings XI Punjab

Kings XI Punjab is another side that will look to create a new ensemble of players in the upcoming season. They would look to utilise their entire budget of Rs. 60 crores in the auctions and may consider using right-to-match option for a swashbuckling hitter like David Miller and leg-spinner Piyush Chawla, who has picked up wickets consistently for the side.

Kolkata Knight Riders

Gautam Gambhir might be out of form but if recent reports are anything to go by, the franchise owners are looking to build a side around him. It was under his leadership that the team went on to clinch the title in 2012. 'Mystery' West Indian spinner Sunil Narine will also be a very vital option, given how Eden Gardens produced low-scoring games last season. The slow nature of the wicket will be extremely helpful for Narine, whose four overs in the middle are always crucial. Kolkata can also look to bring back any two of New Zealand skipper Brendon McCullum, Shakib-al-Hasan and Eoin Morgan.

Rajasthan Royals

The Rajasthan Royals side was built on performers rather than superstars, which puts them in a fix when it comes to player retention. Perhaps, Shane Watson is the only player in the squad who can justify the price tag associated with retaining the player. This leaves Rajasthan Royals will the option of retaining him and reclaiming the services of Ajinkya Rahane - a consistent performer for Rajasthan, Sanju Samson - a young, promising star capable of playing under pressure and Stuart Binny - India's latest recruit and a valuable all-rounder, through right-to-match.