Even in a tri-nation tournament spanning a little over 10 days, all three sides - India, Sri Lanka and the West Indies - have a chance to play Thursday's final. (Preview)
While Sri Lanka's win against West Indies on Monday propelled the side to the top of a topsy-turvy points table, India will now have to win against Sri Lanka in Tuesday's match to clinch a spot in the final. The fate of West Indies, meanwhile, hangs in the balance despite victories in their first two matches. (Points Table)
Equation for India:
Stand-in skipper Virat Kohli's side is currently placed at the bottom of the points table with five points (four for a win and one bonus point) from a single victory. The team surrendered first to West Indies and then lost by 161 runs to Sri Lanka. The Men in Blue then staged a heroic comeback by defeating West Indies by 101 runs - ensuring they remain in the fray.
A win on Tuesday will take them past West Indies in terms of net run-rate - including a last-ball win for a target less than 321. For anything more, the team will have to either win with several deliveries left or by a margin of a number of runs.
If rain - despite a reserve day in place - washes the match out, India will be eliminated.
Equation for Sri Lanka:
With two wins and just one defeat, Sri Lanka top the table and are the safest of the three sides. While the side has 9 points - as many as hosts West Indies - even a loss against India on Tuesday is unlikely to hamper their shot at the trophy, courtesy a strong net run-rate. (Sri Lanka beat West Indies by 39 runs)
This positive net run-rate is largely due to the side's convincing win against India last Tuesday when after scoring 348, the bowlers bundled India out on 187. Add their win against West Indies into the equation and their strong position is further explained. Only if Sri Lanka lose to India in excess of 200-plus runs, their chances of making the final gets reduced.
Equation for West Indies:
West Indies need Sri Lanka to beat India. Their role now is more that of a spectator and the equation for them is the simplest of the three.
Dwayne Bravo's side will feature in the final only if the match is washed out or India lose Tuesday's match. Obviously then, a West Indies-India final is not a possibility as the two teams have inferior run-rates compared to Sri Lanka.