Edmonton Oilers Depth Problem Has Nothing to Do With Connor McDavid

The theory has been floating around Edmonton for weeks now. Cut Connor McDavid's minutes, and the bottom six forwards will suddenly start scoring. It sounds logical on the surface, the idea that giving depth players more ice time naturally leads to more production.

The problem is the numbers do not support it. Looking back across the past three seasons under Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers had stretches where depth forwards thrived on limited minutes and stretches where they completely disappeared regardless of opportunity. Ice time was never the key factor.

McDavid played more minutes last season largely because he logged over a minute per game on the penalty kill, a role he probably should not be relied on for going forward. But shifting those PK minutes to other players will not magically fix a depth scoring problem that has far deeper roots than one superstar hogging the clock.

Depth Players Have Produced Before With Less

In 2024, several bottom-six forwards thrived on modest ice time. Warren Foegele scored 20 goals, averaging under 14 minutes a night. Corey Perry scored at a 17-goal pace playing under 13 minutes. Adam Henrique produced at a 22-goal pace after arriving at the deadline, all while logging limited minutes in a crowded lineup.

Dylan Holloway and Sam Gagner also found ways to contribute to low ice time totals that season. The pattern was clear. When depth players were engaged and effective, minutes were not the limiting factor standing between them and the scoresheet.

Last season told an entirely different story. Henrique slowed dramatically with just three goals in 65 games. Trent Frederic managed four goals in 74 games. Mattias Janmark scored once across nearly 12 minutes a night. The drop-off had nothing to do with reduced opportunity and everything to do with execution.

Colorado Proves the Theory Wrong Entirely

Nathan MacKinnon averaged over 22 minutes a night for the Colorado Avalanche last season, more than McDavid played in most games. Nobody in Colorado is complaining that their captain's ice time is suppressing depth scoring, because their depth forwards are still producing at a high level, regardless.

Parker Kelly scored 21 goals playing under 13 minutes a night. Gavin Brindley added six goals in limited minutes as well. Combined, Kelly and Brindley outproduced ten different Oilers depth forwards who played significantly more total games between them. 

Colorado has shown definitively that a superstar playing heavy minutes and productive depth scoring are not mutually exclusive.

The Real Issue Sits With the Depth Players Themselves

Blaming Knoblauch or McDavid's ice time is an easy narrative because it deflects responsibility away from the players who simply did not perform last season. Depth forwards do not need more minutes to make a meaningful contribution. 

They need to produce, kill penalties effectively, create momentum shifts and play sound defensive hockey during the minutes they already receive. New head coach Mike Babcock may distribute ice time slightly differently this season, and that is fine.

But if McDavid continues dominating games at 22 or 23 minutes a night the way MacKinnon does for Colorado, benching him further makes little sense. Edmonton's actual path forward depends on its depth forwards looking for answers inward rather than outward.