Halfway through Indian Premier League 2024, and one of the most-talked-about franchises Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB) are reeling at the bottom of the points table with only two points and a poor Net Run Rate (NRR) of -1.046. After losing seven out of their eight matches, RCB can still qualify for the IPL 2024 playoffs. They have had a forgettable campaign this season with their bowling unit failing on multiple occasions despite some contributions from the likes of Virat Kohli, Dinesh Karthik, and skipper Faf du Plessis with the bat.
RCB, as their head coach Andy Flower pointed out, need to treat every upcoming game as a knockout. They need to win their next six matches to make sure they get to 14 points at the very least.
RCB's next six fixtures
The basic qualification scenario for RCB would be winning all six of their remaining matches with a healthy margin to repair their poor NRR - against SRH, GT (twice), PBKS, DC, and CSK. That will give them 12 points and take them to 14 overall in the standings.
That said, even 14 points might not prove to be enough if they are tied with one or more teams in the standings with the same amount of points as their NRR has taken a severe beating already.
Permutations and Combinations
However, for RCB to qualify for the IPL 2024 playoffs, the simple math is to back the Top Three (RR, KKR, and SRH) to win as many games as possible while the next six sides above them (LSG, CSK, GT, MI, DC, PBKS) lose just as many so that RCB can finish above them in the standings. Here are a few of the possible ways in which this can be achieved.
- PBKS cannot win more than four out of their remaining six league games.
- DC and MI should win no more than three of their remaining six league games.
- CSK and GT should win no more than two of their remaining six league games.
- LSG should win no more than one of their remaining six league games.
- Lastly, KKR and SRH should win more than one of their remaining seven league games.
However, this still doesn't guarantee a spot for RCB in the playoffs since they have the second-worst NRR in the league at the moment. To sum up, RCB must hope that all the above permutations go their way with the six teams above them suffering heavy defeats while Royal Challengers themselves must earn handsome wins. Should all of the above transpire and RCB win all their remaining games, below is how the IPL 2024 table would look.
IPL 2024 final points table as per the above equation
As per the above equation, RCB can not only qualify for the IPL 2024 playoffs but do that with a four-point buffer. They can even afford to lose a game, but that said there's a lot of ifs and buts that RCB must navigate, meaning that their qualification for the IPL 2024 playoffs depends on nothing less than a minor miracle.