Fresh under the leadership of Ruturaj Gaikwad, the Chennai Super Kings face a tough task ahead as they bid to qualify for the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2024 playoffs and hope to retain the title they had won last under MS Dhoni. Placed 3rd in the points table at present, CSK have their fate in their hands, but their next match is against a hungry Royal Challengers Bengaluru side that has won five games on the bounce. Already sitting on 14 points, CSK are guaranteed progression if they win. But, if they lose things can go either way. (IPL 2024 Points Table)
Kolkata Knight Riders and Rajasthan Royals are the two sides to have qualified for the playoffs while the remaining two spots are being contested between Sunrisers Hyderabad, Chennai Super Kings, Royal Challengers Bengaluru, Delhi Capitals, and Lucknow Super Giants.
DC and LSG are only in the race mathematically, whereas the playoffs battle is quite real for SRH, CSK, and RCB.
How CSK Can Miss Out On A Spot In IPL 2024 Playoffs:
Condition 1: Up against RCB in their final league match of the season, CSK would need to avoid a defeat by 18 runs, if they post 200 runs on the board. Even a 17-run defeat would see them remain ahead of RCB in terms of Net Run Rate. But, a defeat by 18 or more runs would see RCB topple them for a spot in top 4. Then, CSK's fate would be in the hands of SRH.
A similar scenario would take place if RCB secured a victory against CSK with 11 balls remaining, in a case they are chasing 201 runs.
Condition 2: If CSK do lose by 18-plus runs or concede defeat with 11 balls to go (in case of 200-run total and 201-run target), they still can qualify for playoffs. But, for that to happen, SRH would need to lose both of their remaining matches in the league campaign.
Such a scenario would see SRH remain on 14 points in the standings, hence the remaining two playoffs spots will be decided between RCB, CSK, and them via NRR. CSK would need to hope that their NRR remains higher than SRH in this case. Else, they would be knocked out.