In the history of the ICC Cricket World Cup, we have rarely seen a defending champion capitulate as badly as England have so far in the 2023 edition. The 2019 champions are off to a disastrous start, losing four of their opening five matches in the tournament and their title defence mission seems to have reached an impasse way earlier than expected. Their only win in India in the ongoing tournament came against Bangladesh, where the quintessential English white-ball side of the last few years turned up.
In the other matches, however, they looked far from the team the world witnessed since the Eoin Morgan revolution began in 2015. They scraped through to a par total against New Zealand in the tournament opener before the Kiwi batters humbled the English bowlers in the run chase, while their star-studded batting line-up just fell apart against Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and South Africa.
With every team registering points in the tournament, the bottom half of the table is not a long distance away from sneaking into the top four. This may well work for the English team, who are currently closer to the exit doors than the knockout stages.
England find themselves in the ninth position after their defeat to Sri Lanka in Bengaluru. Their net run rate of -1.634 works against their favour, but we have seen some unlikely probabilities being materialised in sports, so this isn't entirely out of the reckoning.
England will face table-toppers India next in Lucknow, followed by Australia, Netherlands and Pakistan. The fixtures could not have been more challenging, but that is the need of the hour for the Three Lions.
Can England make it to the ICC World Cup 2023 semi-finals? Here's a look at all the scenarios that could unfold and where it would put the defending champions.
1. England win the next four matches - 5 wins, 10 points
England's best chance, as is for most teams in the bottom half, is to win all their remaining matches. However, England are likely to face stiff competition from teams like India, Australia and Pakistan. Even after winning all their remaining matches, the most definitive probability is that there will be two or more teams with as many points as England, bringing the battle down to net run rate.
The best comparison for this is the 1992 and 2019 editions, which were organised in the same format. In 1992, Pakistan (eventual champions) progressed to the semi-finals with four wins in nine matches (plus one extra point for a no-result). In 2019, New Zealand sneaked through on net run rate in the fourth position with five wins (plus one extra point for a no-result).
History says there is still scope for England if this scenario plays out, but this will also require them to pick up at least two massive victories to lift their catastrophic net run rate.
2. England win three of their four matches - 4 wins, 8 points
There is an outside chance for England to make it to the top four with only four points, like in the case of Pakistan. However, for that to happen, they will require the current top three to continue winning their matches, unless it is against England. Even among the other seven, they will require teams above them to constantly drop points. Such a scenario is a little unlikely, as more often than not, teams England want to lose, are facing each other, thus resulting in one of them getting points.
A defeat in any of their remaining games will virtually end their campaign unless we see the rarest cricketing probability work its magic in the wind and push England into the top four out of the blue.
3. England win two of their four matches - 3 wins, 6 points
England will be knocked out of the tournament.
4. England win one of their four matches - 2 wins, 4 points
England will be knocked out of the tournament.
5. England lose the next four matches - 1 win, two points
England will not only be eliminated but also pick up an unwanted record currently in Sri Lanka's hold. Sri Lanka, who won the 1996 World Cup, won only two matches in the following edition in 1999, making it the worst performance by a defending champion in ICC Men's Cricket World Cup history. England are on the verge of levelling or surpassing this record.